The historic rise followed by the historic fall of the price of oil will undoubtedly cushion the inflationary blow.  Also, real economic growth will also be sustained by the drop in energy costs combined with massive federal spending to keep the loans that underpin the economy from drying up.   But what will inflation look like in the next few years?

Sarah Palin has seen a meteoric rise in politics every bit as remarkable as Barrack Obama’s. At 44, Sarah Palin has been governor for two years after being elected in 2006. She is known in Alaska politics for taking on the good old boy network of political corruption. Notably, taking on the chairman of her own Republican party over ethical violations. At over 90%, she has one of the highest favorability ratings of any state Governor.

Democrats have immediately seized upon her lack of experience in foreign affairs as invalidating the criticisms of Barrack Obama’s own lack of Foreign affairs experience. Republicans have hailed the pick of a Conservative pro-life mother of 5 children who is likely to help invigorate McCain’s campaign among conservative republicans and younger voters. While criticism of Barrack Obama’s experience might now have to be muted on the Republican side, Obama also risks alienating some women voters if his surrogates seek to belittle Governor Palin’s experience and aptitude.

Either way, the move is widely being hailed as a bold choice and will certainly cement John McCain’s old “maverick” independent image going into this election.

For those of you that missed it

My play by play:

First 2 minutes … Obama says thank you 30 times while the crowd cheers

And wait wait… he accepts the nomination. (Real nail biter there.)

cue more cheering and chanting….O Bama O Bama!

thanks Hillary. You are great.

Thanks President Bill Clinton, Ted Kennedy “embodies the spirit of service”

4:39 into it.

Biden takes Amtrak to work

Obama loves his wife and kids

5:20

now we get to it.

Life story. mom and dad believed in America. No mention of the dad that abandoned him. Brief family history according to Barrack. - wow that was quick

now the economy

6:47

economy sucks. people can’t pay bills etc.

failure to respond. Failure of George Bush

America is better than the last few years. Better than a man in Indiana having to watch his equipment packed up and shipped to China. Better than sitting on our hands watching while New Orleans drowns.

Enough

8:45

keeping the promise alive. George Bush Dick Cheney don’t get a third term. We love this country too much for that. “8 is enough”.

more chanting from the crowd.

10:00

no doubt. McCain wore uniform with bravery and distinction. Thanks.

90% voting record with Bush. No taking a 10% chance on change.

McCain’s advisors say we are a nation of whiners. that economy is fundamentally strong.

Americans aren’t whiners .. .they just keep working without complaint. These are real Americans.

McCain doesn’t offer tax relief for working people. McCain would tax health benefits. McCain doesn’t get it.

McCain believes in trickle down.

Time for change.
14:00 that’s why Obama is running for president. (because we have all been living under a rock and didn’t know Obama was big into the change thing.)

Obama’s measure of progress: being able to save enough to be able to send your kids to college. more jobs, higher incomes. not how the rich are doing. people can start new businesses. waitress can look after sick kid without losing a job.

personal story. Grandfather fought in wwii, GI bill. Barrack’s mom being able to get loans and scholarships for kids. Worked a lot.

17:30 grandmother taught him about self sacrifice. worked her way up from secretarial pool to middle management. poured everything he had into him. sacrificed buying new clothes for him.

Obama not leading celebrity life. Wants to be president.

18:30

American promise?

freedom to make of our own lives what we will. dignity. market should reward innovation. businesses have responsibilities to create jobs.

government should protect us from harm, provide every child with education, invest in new schools, keep our water safe, new roads, science, technology, for us not against us. help us not hurt us. provide for everyone that wants to work. be our brother and sisters keeper.

exactly what that would mean:

tax code that does not reward lobbyists.

no tax breaks for exporters of jobs. tax breaks for creators of jobs. tax breaks for startups. cut taxes for 95% of working families. clear goal 10 years no more dependence on oil from the middle east.

“we will do this”

22:00

McCain doesn’t want more fuel efficiency etc.

Drilling is a stop gap solution, not a long term solution.

as president… will tap that natural gas, clean coal??, safer nuclear. build clean cars in America. invest 150 billion in wind power, solar, biofuels.

time for world class education… compete in global economy… chance like Barrack and wife had… (he went to a private school.)

24:00

raise an army of new teachers. ask for higher standards more accountability. service to community or country and you will be able to “afford” a college education.

affordable health care. his plan will make available congressional health plans to all if no better option exists.

paid sick leave for all.

must protect social security. equal pay for women.

27:00

tax loop holes are bad. 20th century bureaucracy is bad.

new sense of responsibility for each of us. make our homes and businesses more efficient. parents have to turn off tvs and make kids do home work.

“individual responsibility and mutual responsibility”

ready to debate McCain on temperament to lead.

29:00

Obama was opposed to Iraq war. Obama wants troop surge in Afghanistan. McCain too chicken to go to Osama’s cave.

Obama ready to withdraw from Iraq.

McCain “grasping at the ideas of the past”. Don’t defeat terrorist network by occupying Iraq.

dems party of Roosevelt and Kennedy and can defend the US. They are here to restore that legacy. Obama won’t hesitate to send troops into battle. Obama smarter than Bush/McCain.

nuclear weapons (in other hands) bad. America last best hope for freedom, future. yearning.

34:15

looking forward to debates

won’t question McCain’s motives for taking positions but debate policies. questioning patriotism should not be part of partisan politics. (good luck there.)

implies McCain won’t do the same. (that was quick)

36:15

lost sense of common purpose. common purpose to reduce unwanted pregnancies. keep ak 47s out of the hands of criminals. agree that gay and lesbians can visit loved ones in hospitals and live lives free of discrimination. don’t seperate immigrant moms from their babies.

not just Happy talk.

not trojan horse for higher taxes.

fear mongering by the other side. ( i guess their motives aren’t so pure)

39:20

election not about him, it is about you. about you.

no more same old politics. Change comes to Washington… (like joe biden on amtrack for the last 35 years)

change is a comin’… (comin’ round that corner thar she blows, like on an amtrack train.. not like Bill Clinton)

even people without limbs can work hard.

41:08

American is strong because of the American spirit that pushes us forward. Fix our eye on what is unseen. Promise of the future … around the bend. pioneers etc etc.

can’t turn back.

march into the future. American promise.

44:30

thanks

cheering, country music fireworks.

family on stage. biden comes out

streamers get shot out of the stage… no roof to drop balloons this time

more inspirational classical type music.

more fireworks. more launched confetti.

It was 50 years ago, at the height of the last great US baby boom that the US set the record.  In 1957, there were 4.3 million births and there hasn’t been a bigger year since then.  With the US population more than double the size it was in 1957 that means the birthrate, the number of babies born per thousand women, is still much lower than it was 5 decades ago.

The shear number of kids entering schools in the next few years will likely tax school systems (and thus tax-payers) which haven’t seen numbers like these in decades.

The last time, baby boomers created a social revolution in the 1960s.  Today’s baby surgers, growing up with the Internet and a far different set social norms, are likely to make their mark in ways that won’t be apparent until many years from now.

There will only be talk of victory during the parade scheduled for Thursday in Boston as the City celebrates and congratulates the Celtics on a hard won victory.

A majority of US Presidents have been state governors before they were elected. It makes sense that Americans would choose a president that has executive experience over legislative experience given the president is primarily responsible for running the government and not making laws. That’s why 2008 is such a strange year in American politics, because no governors are likely to be on the ballot in the general election this Fall. At least in the top spot. Instead it looks increasingly likely two US Senators, Barrack Obama and John McCain, will be the two-party nominees. Even more stunning a fact considering the record low public approval ratings of Congress. Ratings which fall short of even President Bush’s record low job approval polling.

So, it wouldn’t be that great a leap to suggest that the nominees might look outside the beltway to the 50 US Governors for their short list of potential Vice Presidential nominees.

A look at the breakdown along party lines shows us that John McCain’s short list is a bit shorter than Barrack Obama’s, with just 22 Republican Governors to choose from. That’s of course assuming that both candidates stay within party lines. Although the talk of “change” is prevalent this election cycle it is hard to see where either candidate will be willing to take a hit among party activists for choosing an Independent or someone from the other party. Not to mention that it would give the other party a leg up in the next election, since VPs have increasingly become presumptive front runners and successors when the president leaves office.

In past years, nominees would choose running mates based on needing to garner support of a key state. So, big state governors would be the top of the list. For McCain, Arnold Schwarzenegger would be an obvious choice if it weren’t for Article II of the US constitution which requires that the president be a natural-born US citizen (The Governator was born in Austria and is a naturalized US citizen). So, that leaves John McCain with 21 to choose from. Out of those 21 Republicans only Charlie Crist from Florida, Mitch Daniels from Indiana, or Rick Perry of Texas would be from states that might be considered big or important enough to merit consideration for no other reason. Barrack Obama has even fewer big or big swing state governors to choose from, with Ted Strickland of Ohio and Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania on that short list. Notably Ed Rendell was a Clinton supporter in the recent primary contest.

If you look past the VP as a way to get votes from a single state, then you have some more choices. Hillary Clinton’s run for office has been a groundbreaking year for women, almost, and the demographics of the electorate would seem to support picking a woman as VP. There, both John McCain and Barrack Obama have some interesting choices.

On the Republican side; Sarah Palin from Alaska, Jodi Rell of Connecticut, and Linda Lingle of Hawaii are all potential VP candidates. Out of those Sarah Palin is an obvious front runner. The other two won’t be appealing to conservatives being from liberal and usually Democratic Party states. While Palin’s relative youth, she is 44, could balance out John McCain’s main weakness as a candidate. On the other hand the age disparity could backfire by providing too great a contrast.

On the Democratic side; Janet Napolitano from John McCain’s home state of Arizona, Ruth Ann Minner from Delaware, Kathleen Sebelius from Kansas, Jennifer Granholm from Michigan and Christine Gregoire from Washington give Obama more potential VP candidates to choose from. Out of those Kathleen Sebelius and Jennifer Granholm seem to stand out. But Granholm helped to orchestrate the Michigan primary debacle putting her at odds with some in the party. So, Kathleen Sebelius would seem to be the better candidate and has been very much in the Party spotlight this year, notably giving the Democratic Party response to the State of the Union speech this year.

The danger for Barrack in choosing Kathleen Sebelius or another woman governor will be the bittersweet sense amongst many people that campaigned for Hillary Clinton that they are being patronized with a candidate that is not Hillary. But it seems after the bitter Democratic Party campaign, where each side brutalized the supposed lack of substance of the other candidate, very little will be able to heal those wounds. Obama might be better off pursuing broader support than just looking to appease the Hillary Democrats.

No matter the prediction, 2008 has been a year that has energized many people with the idea that a woman could break through the last and highest glass ceiling. And clear advantage will go to the nominee that can benefit from that political trend.

In November, there is a real possibility that there could be a woman on both tickets which could split the “women’s vote” down the middle. And we might have to go back to talking about public policy and a direction for our country, instead of just haggling over identity politics. Which will be a debate that is better for everyone, no matter what the shape of your 23rd chromosome.