bostonpatriot

by Pat O’Reilly

A majority of US Presidents have been state governors before they were elected. It makes sense that Americans would choose a president that has executive experience over legislative experience given the president is primarily responsible for running the government and not making laws. That’s why 2008 is such a strange year in American politics, because no governors are likely to be on the ballot in the general election this Fall. At least in the top spot. Instead it looks increasingly likely two US Senators, Barrack Obama and John McCain, will be the two-party nominees. Even more stunning a fact considering the record low public approval ratings of Congress. Ratings which fall short of even President Bush’s record low job approval polling.

So, it wouldn’t be that great a leap to suggest that the nominees might look outside the beltway to the 50 US Governors for their short list of potential Vice Presidential nominees.

A look at the breakdown along party lines shows us that John McCain’s short list is a bit shorter than Barrack Obama’s, with just 22 Republican Governors to choose from. That’s of course assuming that both candidates stay within party lines. Although the talk of “change” is prevalent this election cycle it is hard to see where either candidate will be willing to take a hit among party activists for choosing an Independent or someone from the other party. Not to mention that it would give the other party a leg up in the next election, since VPs have increasingly become presumptive front runners and successors when the president leaves office.

In past years, nominees would choose running mates based on needing to garner support of a key state. So, big state governors would be the top of the list. For McCain, Arnold Schwarzenegger would be an obvious choice if it weren’t for Article II of the US constitution which requires that the president be a natural-born US citizen (The Governator was born in Austria and is a naturalized US citizen). So, that leaves John McCain with 21 to choose from. Out of those 21 Republicans only Charlie Crist from Florida, Mitch Daniels from Indiana, or Rick Perry of Texas would be from states that might be considered big or important enough to merit consideration for no other reason. Barrack Obama has even fewer big or big swing state governors to choose from, with Ted Strickland of Ohio and Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania on that short list. Notably Ed Rendell was a Clinton supporter in the recent primary contest.

If you look past the VP as a way to get votes from a single state, then you have some more choices. Hillary Clinton’s run for office has been a groundbreaking year for women, almost, and the demographics of the electorate would seem to support picking a woman as VP. There, both John McCain and Barrack Obama have some interesting choices.

On the Republican side; Sarah Palin from Alaska, Jodi Rell of Connecticut, and Linda Lingle of Hawaii are all potential VP candidates. Out of those Sarah Palin is an obvious front runner. The other two won’t be appealing to conservatives being from liberal and usually Democratic Party states. While Palin’s relative youth, she is 44, could balance out John McCain’s main weakness as a candidate. On the other hand the age disparity could backfire by providing too great a contrast.

On the Democratic side; Janet Napolitano from John McCain’s home state of Arizona, Ruth Ann Minner from Delaware, Kathleen Sebelius from Kansas, Jennifer Granholm from Michigan and Christine Gregoire from Washington give Obama more potential VP candidates to choose from. Out of those Kathleen Sebelius and Jennifer Granholm seem to stand out. But Granholm helped to orchestrate the Michigan primary debacle putting her at odds with some in the party. So, Kathleen Sebelius would seem to be the better candidate and has been very much in the Party spotlight this year, notably giving the Democratic Party response to the State of the Union speech this year.

The danger for Barrack in choosing Kathleen Sebelius or another woman governor will be the bittersweet sense amongst many people that campaigned for Hillary Clinton that they are being patronized with a candidate that is not Hillary. But it seems after the bitter Democratic Party campaign, where each side brutalized the supposed lack of substance of the other candidate, very little will be able to heal those wounds. Obama might be better off pursuing broader support than just looking to appease the Hillary Democrats.

No matter the prediction, 2008 has been a year that has energized many people with the idea that a woman could break through the last and highest glass ceiling. And clear advantage will go to the nominee that can benefit from that political trend.

In November, there is a real possibility that there could be a woman on both tickets which could split the “women’s vote” down the middle. And we might have to go back to talking about public policy and a direction for our country, instead of just haggling over identity politics. Which will be a debate that is better for everyone, no matter what the shape of your 23rd chromosome.